Continuing the ever interesting AAR of Uman Pocket installment # 6. See bottom of page for back links.
The Soviet Mech move phase of Turn 11 sees them position for more risky counter attacks. . Bring it.
Meanwhile out goal is to capture or isolate Vinnitsa so it cannot be used as a supply source. I think at this point the Soviet player is still unaware of what the rules impact will be for him. I;ve made a few errors here and there that give me a bit of an edge. However none that are any worse to my opponents equally missed or overlooked mistakes.
In the North the Soviets line up some attacks:
Most are conducted with a minimum of plus 2 on the DRM due to the lack of Attack Supply [AS] being used or available. By keeping in decent terrain or applying air we can make most attacks suffer a +3. Worst case here we may have allowed some arty and air to be used by both sides when no AS was present. So both sides made this error a few times. Doah. I dont think this colors the flow of the situation much at all however.
the max available. In the center below we can see 1:2 attacks! And 3:2, highly risky efforts.
Lets take a look at what the chances are of the Soviets putting the hurt on with these attacks!!!
The first row is 0, the table runs thru 11. We use a 1d10 for combat. On average 7 or higher earns the Soviet a retreat and or at least 1 step loss from 1:2 – 3:2. I think that means he has a 41.65% chance of a negative to him only result across the 12 possible outcomes. The best they can roll is a 1 with say on the whole a +2 so a 3, he earns a No Result, loses 1+an extra armour, loses 2 and takes no loss. In exchange for R,1,R. That is some tough fighting.
The same in the south.
The results are bad. With several steps lost. Only their 10:1 attacks do anything, the others inflict minor damage but more importantly do not impact the go forward plan.
At this point the Soviet player has said they are banking on the impact of my units being out of supply. Once again unless Im mistaken this is not a big deal. We lose 2 mp, earn no +ve DRMs for large formation attacks etc, and automatically suffer a +1 DRM. WE can mitigate where necessary with air and on defense we can handle it IF the odds stay like they are.
On to Turn 12. The 14th & 15th of July 1941.
In the North we press the attack in Emergency supply mode. Putting very targeted attacks in. WE must not forget to use ASP here to mitigate being out of supply. This allows us to use Arty and air.
South Central we drive to clear the road to Vinnitsa and stay adjacent to now OOS Soviets to force surrender rolls. Which the Axis do not suffer.
We make a stab for Kisinev, a low odds attack but worth it if we can make it work for us. The attack ends up being a 3:2, due to arty I miss counted.
Oh and the big attack that matters – Kiev outskirts. We knock out the first line of defense south of Kiev:
We are very, very close to getting our first attacks on the actually city hexes.
Start of the Soviet Mot.Phase post combat for Axis. The German attack machine slows a little with a few dud attacks, as a result of not enough DRM’s and attack supply.
The Red Circled forces will likely be OOS this coming turn.
Below the Soviets press more attacks. By the looks of it seeking to press on the Axis supply route. These hefty Divisions should be ok to protect the line. But we are thin and there is always risk!
Results of these attacks in the next turn.