German attacks this turn do not go as well as the Axis had hoped for.

While the Axis attack out of Shakhty went well, driving the Soviets back the Rostov assaults were repulsed despite heavy assault by air & arty they suffer a loss and reform for next turn.

Soviet screening forces of the ” Morozovsk” mini front sacrifice steps in stalwart defence and thwart a follow on break thru attack at great cost.

The Soviets use this time to build a secondary line, reinforce the Rostov salient and peel away what can be spared from the Northern Voronezh front. Two armoured Corps insert themselves into a supply blocking potential situation. We have to careful as a really lucky or good 1:1 across here at any point will create a hole we have no reserves to fill with. My opponent is conservative so I don’t expect it. But we must..expect the unexpected.

This will either force a diversion of force or a slow down on amount of CF that can be brought to bear against the critical hex. Its critical because right now he is 4 VP off the pace. At the end of this coming turn if he fails he will be 5 VP off pace and 1 VP away from auto loss.

The best he can bring to the attack now is 30 factors versus 16 1:1 with AIR and a HQ and Elite he can obtain a 3:1. But that is much lower odds than the potential 4:1 or better that is optimal for the Axis attacker. Worst case he stays at 4 behind we lose a VP and carry on. The VP rate then stays at 10 through turn 16, then goes to 11 & 12. A very finely tuned system here!!

Can the Soviets hold onto all the VPS sans Moroszovsk until turn 18? The only “easy site” is the formerly mentioned Moroszovsk. EVERYTHING else sits on the other side of the Dnepr. Except Rostov.. Which I currently do not think he has the firepower to take quickly. Each of my fortified hexes has a minimum of 10 factors up to 16, with a 1 shift to the left. Available forces to him are 40 factors… that looks mighty thin to me . Once we hit Rostov all my dudes are doubled.