BigBoard Gaming · Strategy Series

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The Strategy

Calligraphy: 計 (ji) — Estimates / Calculations

In the Tao of warfare, calculation (ji, 計) is foremost. Before engaging in combat, first estimate the relative sagacity and stupidity of the generals, the enemy’s strength and weaknesses, the numerousness or scarcity of troops, the difficulty or ease of the terrain, and the sufficiency or insufficiency of supplies. When these calculations have been thoroughly made, then mobilize the army — and there will be no battles not won.

(Translation: Ralph D. Sawyer)

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The title ‘Estimates’ (ji, 計) also carries the notions of calculations, schemes, and plans. It mirrors the very first chapter of Sun Tzu’s Art of War. The Art of War quote referenced here is from Chapter 10: ‘The power of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory, and calculating difficulties, dangers and distances, constitutes the test of a great general.’ (Giles, 1910)

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Historical Illustration

The text gives the historical example of Liu Bei’s recruitment of Zhuge Liang in 207 CE. After two failed attempts, Liu Bei paid a third personal visit — a display of patience and considered estimation of the man’s worth. Zhuge Liang rewarded that persistence by becoming Liu Bei’s foremost strategist. Before acting, Liu Bei calculated that Zhuge Liang was worth the effort. The outcome vindicated the estimate.

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Eastern Wisdom

Art: Bushido series

“Military affairs are a country’s vital concerns. The lands that are lethal or safe, and the ways that cause existence or destruction, must never be taken lightly.”

— Sun Tzu, The Art of War (Linyi Text, trans. Huang), Book I: Surveying, p. 39

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A Western Mirror

Western military doctrine arrived at the same place through a different door. The U.S. Army’s operational planning process — still taught and used in wargame design — opens with the Estimate of the Situation:

“1. Estimate of the Situation:
1.1. Determine size and location of enemy’s battle forces.
1.2. Determine enemy’s center of gravity.
1.3. Determine Critical Points for both sides.”

— BGG Operational Planning (from Mil_Theory_Operational_Art/BGG_Operational Planning.docx)

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Before a single military element moves, or in our wargamer parlance a counter moves, before a plan is committed to, you are expected to sit down and pragmatically or honestly assess what you know and what you don’t.

Sun Tzu called this ji.

NATO doctrine calls it the Estimate. The vocabulary is different; the the result is identical.

The failure mode in both traditions is the same: commanders who skip the estimate, who act on wishful thinking rather than a practical or honest assessment. Liu Bei did not skip it. That’s why he got Zhuge Liang. Commanders who skip it get the Battle of Kasserine Pass.

Source: Osprey

On the table: In most hex-and-counter operational games, the ‘estimate’ phase happens before you touch a counter. For me the Victory Conditions and the background of games history are always first and foremost.— it’s the moment you scan the map, look at the terrain, assess the movement potential, check your supply lines, identify weaknesses and limitations of the enemy. What will the course of action be for the Enemy? Are they Attacking, Defending, Delaying?

After that the real planning can begin. The Who, What, Where, When and of course the Why! Now that you have a clear estimation of your ability, your direction from on high [the VP’s] and that of your enemy. You can build a rough plan to achieve your end state and goals.

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Series Note

Post #1 of 100. Next: Strategy #2 — Plans — publishes June 2026.