Scenario # 6
Well into Soviet territory now, below we can see the Axis advance. In the top right is Kiev, bottom right Odessa. Rail has been extended out of Poland past Brody, and the offensive in the South is just now evolving as of turn 6. This scenario starts 1/2 way thru turn 9 which is July 8th and 9th 1941.
July 8th-9th
Area of Operations [AO]:
The Axis begin this scenario post invasion and having succeeded in clearing Brody thru Ternopol. This AO covers a significant area to be managed and has the
Germans begin with 17 VP’s.
A decisive victory in this scenario is 46 VP or more. Operational victory is set at 38 to 45. Which means we need to acquire 21 VPs. Lets briefly examine how this might be achieved.
+2 VP can be had for each Mandated Attack not conducted in a turn where Germans have acquired a VP hex. +2 or +1 VP for HQ kill, Guard units and combinations of 8 armour/arty.
Germans suffer malus to the VP’s in roughly equivalent measures.
Then of course 2 hexes of Kiev and Odessa are worth extra timed VP’s:
Kiev:
Odessa:
Which brings us a total of 16VP for Kiev if achieved in 6 turns, otherwise only 8 VP if after turn 15 [July 20-21]. Odessa is just 4 VP if achieved after July 28-29 or Turn 19 – 10 turns from start of game.
Let’s see if we can construct a game plan to outfox the enemy and get those 21 pts. 3 are gimmies at the open, Zhitomir, Vinnitsa and possibly Fastov; which leaves 18 to acquire. We need to ignore Korosten as it is too far North and diversionary moves dilute the main effort. The only reason we would attempt such thing is to draw the enemy from our real objective.
Assuming we do not make the deadline for Kiev but do capture it that is 8 VP, and 4 more for Odessa if we miss the early dates racking up just 12 VP. 6-9 more VP are required to achieve an Operational Victory level. This would lead us to taking on secondary VP locations or placing units in OOS , especially armour and HQ can easily generate 4-8 VP. All of this is of course predicated upon actually taking Kiev and Odessa, if either can be captured on schedule then a relatively easy path to victory lays before the Axis.
Let’s break down this huge area to examine a bit more, some likely paths of advance.
North
Units from Korets to Zhitomir will lunge forward to do four things:
- Secure rail line and approach to Fastov [the purple line on image above].
- Advance as fast as possible to Fastov along the Zhitomir- Kiev road. A bridging unit will be diverted with a Mot. Division to cross the Dnper South of Kiev and block supply and reinforcement if possible.
- Screen off elements to North and refuse access to our supply and their city.
- Finally, any remaining units to encircle where possible the pocket bounded by Zhitomir-Vinnitsa
That effort will be supported by 17th Army elements including SS: Wiking and 3+ divisions of Infantry from the South.
Central
Once the isolation effort is locked down, motorized and armoured divisions need to be freed up to make a dash for the Eastern Exit to avoid -5VP losses. While going right thru Kiev is an option, taking the slower route via Vinnitsa-Uman-Novoarkangelsk is a good option also.
SS:W and 9th Panzer could be prime candidates to do that run.
South
The Dnestr river line should be breached at Mogilev Podolskiy [1VP], but not in heavy force. The primary effort will be aimed at moving towards Odessa via Dubossary. Once again attempting to isolate and cut off a large chunk of the forces and let them starve Isolation and starvation or OOS rolls are not easy to generate, but more on that later, or see my Solo AAR. The Southernmost Rumanian units will provide diversionary attacks and attempt to take Kishinev if possible.
The Germans have advantages. We can fight easily without supply [+2 DRM…a 20% detriment to your roll but doable in a pinch], we can move without supply [less quickly -2MP], and we wont die of attrition. But we get no Arty and No Air support when not using ASP. While it is not easy to kill off Soviet units due to attrition, it can work. Plus they may at some point feel the need to counter attack to break out…please.. Be my guest. So the Soviet play may expect that we will stage along, keeping in touch with our supply lines. No sir… We are going for it.
Other notes
There will be temptations to cherry pick Soviet HQ and Arty units. These must be ignored and powered down in order to meet the tight time-lines for the larger prize of 16 VP in Kiev in a very short time period.
Weather will start to play a huge role in this battle very quickly if dice go sideways. Every turn there is a 30% chance of mud or mud and storm. Too much bad weather and we will have to revert to mass murder of Soviets to achieve objective VP’s, versus capturing locations due to adverse supply impact and slower moving units.
This game will be played live and via vassal PBeM to speed stuff along. This report of course comes to you well past the point of play as my opponent must not know how completely obvious a war planner I am!!