Based on the German plan, which directs rapid movement EAST at ALL COSTS, let’s look at what the Soviets do in their Mech Phase, which is the start of the scenario:
They have elected to move the limited # of units they have into some counter attacks!
Surprisingly they opt to attack 11th Panzer in Berichev, and cherry pick two other attacks for a total of 3 on the map. Interestingly there were some solid opportunities to build better odds, but caution might have played a role in the limited attack on 13th Pz’s 93rd regiment who is leading the way from Novograd Volynskiy toward Zhitomir [love Russian city names].
Lets examine the 3 attacks below. This will be telling. What we hope here is we instil a fear of counter attack, and a desire to run. The Germans need to race to Kiev, cross the River and isolate the city, before he knows what is happening.
Sadly, I exposed this gambit in a learning scenario when supply was not used. So I hope he forgot…ahem..
#1 attack is 2.5:1 with a possible 8 extra Arty point from the Soviets if his HQ is in range. I’m adding 9 factors of arty [ why not its end of turn] so odds will stay pretty close to 2:1. Limited DRM’s for him.
#2 is more problematic 11 factors versus my 4 and another 8 in Arty. Best I can do is move 9th MG Bn to support and drop some air on it. That bumps the defense to 6 vs 19 still a 3:1. No retreat orders for all units.
#3 This befuddles me. I think Im gunna rip a new arsehole here. Its 11th Pz for God’s sake, a regiment of tanks, the recon Bn and a Mot. Regiment to boot with Engineer….In a city his armor is halved [right..?], and my engineers plop a +1…muhahaha. I’m hoping for a bitching 10 on this defence, this all clocks in at 1:2 before his arty so at best 1:1 with some DRMS in my favour. Uber Alles!!!
After Soviet combat is resolved, where he moves his MSU will also shed a bit of light on his plans. Normally I’d go hard after the supply, but we need speed eastward and after taking a blood nose a few times attacking he likely wont attack until he has overwhelming force. Then the MSU wont mean much anyway. In general I’m guessing he will drop back and build up the defence of Kiev, lets hope so.
In this game it seems only high odds attacks are relatively free from any punishment, in order for that type of attack to occur he has to move infantry adjacent to me the turn prior, showing his hand. IT ‘should’ be tactically possible to avoid any such massive attacks if we pay attention to the board.
On the German offense, getting inside that OODA [ a 5 part exploration from another game play] loop is critical. The turn sequence offers advantage to us, but we must capitalize on it such that the Soviet player does not see the moves coming.