Over the
I wrote this piece a while back, and have some game play done. I do wish to revisit the the scenario as it is very interesting. Dealing with the revolt of the Poles. It will require access to my larger table. Summer cannot come soon enough!
1985…No.
First, we need to go back a little bit in time.
To consider what has come before and what will, might, did happen, could happen.
The events, the timing, the alternate realities that could have occurred but for the butterflies wing sweep or the black swans arrival. A quick overview then of events as we know them:
In 1953 the East German anti Soviet riots were snuffed out.
In 1956 the Hungarian uprising was brutally suppressed.
In 1968 the Prague uprising took place.
In Poland from 1952, through 1960 there were many protests.
Worse yet riots in 1952 and 1970.
People gathered to listen, to think, to collaborate.
Then the Polish Pope arrives, and provides a unifying call, a moment to bring all Polish people together.
In 1979 the shipyard workers strike. One-man, Jaroslaw Wolasa, says “we won’t accept what the Government has to offer”
After strikes and protests the Government allows the formation of Unions.
10 million Poles or 80% of the workforce join up in Solidarity. Food shortages, unemployment and frustration begin to drive this movement to something more.
They agitate for change.
The Soviet Union installs a puppet General to be Prime Minister [defector dictator ], Wojciech Witold Jaruzelski.
He quickly declares Martial Law, followed by 5,000 arrests, the closure of schools, offices and control of Media is taken by the Government.
Protests, are violently suppressed by the Polish Government.
The protests continue for nearly two years.
The Pope highlights the plight of the Polish people and provides infrastructure and support to the populace. Raising international awareness.
Ronald Reagan institutes sanctions on the USSR.
He meets with the Pope denouncing the crack down and repression of the Polish.
During the revolutions of 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe, Jaruzelski supported the change of government for the benefit of the country and resigned after the Polish Round Table, which led to multi-party elections in Poland.
By working with the Soviet political system this avoids invasion by the Soviet Union Jarezelski works with Gorbachev where by 1983 they allow for systemic changes to the Polish Government providing for open elections for the first time in nearly 40 years.
BUT.
What if something different occurred at a critical juncture?
What if the Jaruzelski had not imposed martial law?
What if Walesa agitated for a more direct outcome?
What if these events all happened or began to happen not in 1981 but later on in the decline of the Soviet Union?
What if Reagan had pressed harder?
What would the Soviet Union had done with or about the proposed peacemaker Gorbachev?
Well. It all began in the shipyards you see….
July 10th 1985 0400 Zulu Time