June II Turn 7
Random Event: Air Support for the Allies
The Allies push more supply into Tobruk, and press a thin line forward to attempt to hold Gambut one more turn. Not looking likely.
Figure 1 End of 1st Impulse Allies
The Axis suffers shipping issues, both supply units are sunk along with German Replacements. But the Axis have pressed 3 MSU into the front lines. So we must expect to lose Gambut this turn. Which will mean Sidi Barrani defense becomes critical, and I just do not have the units to protect it!
The Germans do the following during the 1st Impulse, purchase a Commando Supremo. Push units forward but no attacks!
Figure 2 Tobruk situation
The allies have max defensive capability in Tobruk, but no replacements. They will ship in one next turn or the one after.
Figure 3 no axis attacks?
This was a surprising result. No attack in the 1st impulse! But they are well positioned to do several different things.
Allied 2nd Impulse:
Figure 4 Allies Counter Attack
The Allies attack earn a 5:1 attack and get a DS result. This costs 2 supply and earns a step loss on the Ariete.
Was it worth it? We did get to re jig the lines with the advance anywhere rule!
Figure 5 Post attack realigned defense.
By pushing 4SA into the mix, we relieve Tobruk for one turn and put an irresistible target in front of the Axis. They will likely attack it frittering a SP if we are lucky.
And indeed, he does, but also chooses a localized attack on the 11th Hussars & the stack at Trigh el abd. Note neither attack moves him closer to taking Gambut! Though the center stack could evolve into a problem.
So let the poor Brits bleed.
And they do. 2 step losses but we bleed a Battalion of Germans!
No advances! Another shock move.
Allied 3rd Impulse
Bardia and the road to Sidi are virtually unguarded. But I have to hold the Gambut airfield for this impulse then we can back off!
However, that feels a bit artificial. As the Allied player I would have dropped back well and truly by now.
Axis 3rd Impulse:
Axis buy an air support marker. Then they attack the 22nd Guard 4 RTR and my favorite Curry Muncher Brigade the now reduced 3rd Indian, they only manage a DR2. We skedaddle and are disrupted but live to fight another day.
It is likely now time to attempt a complex move. We need to draw the Germans BACK to Tobruk!! More on how we do that next turn. Do we try to keep Gambut for one more turn, OR retreat better still in good order and begin planning the defense of Sidi Barrani.
I suspect that is the best option.
End turn supply attrition
Axis loses an MSU. As do the allies. The Axis can ill afford that, with 3 MSU consumed this turn plus two lost at sea.
The VP track now drops to -5. If the scenario ends with a negative number the Allies win. Positive numbers mean the Germans win.
On to Turn 8:
What happens now?
The Axis must capture Gambut, before doing anything else first the airfield which will consume the entire 2 Impulse turn of Jul I. He can then stop losing VP, and sit at -6 VP.
From there he needs to capture Sidi Barrani with enough time on the clock to recoup 5-7 VPS. So lets call that 4 turns, of Sept I. Where with Sidi in hand he would earn a VP a turn, from Sep I through NOV II – 6 turns to get to zero VPs.
If by Dec I the second last turn [turn 18] he has done so and he has four airfields he can win, as he can pick up 2 VP that turn to end up positive [between 1 and 3 VP] . Jul I through Sep I are two impulse turns, that is tough going for the German player. It is not all champagnes and cucumber sandwiches though for the Commonwealth. They must hold Sidi with limited forces. They must not lose an additional airfield in the far eastern map edge and they must rebuild enough forces to re capture Sidi if and when they lose it.