bremen-or-not-bremen-question-turn-14-1941-spring

Initial Thoughts
On the German player’s last turn he advanced only one hex (taking the mountains west of Manchester). I figured I would attrition, and if I could take a hex, I could put us right back to where we were last turn. Of course, there’s no guarantee I would be able to take a hex. The other alternative was to spend money on an offensive and attack, but he would be doubled and could add in a lot of air power. Additionally, if I rolled a big EX I would not be able to build in his tanks’ ZOC, which would be disastrous. Since GB is trying to stall as long as possible, the safe thing to do is to attrition. If the dice favored me then that would mean the German basically wasted one turn gaining nothing.

Start
DoW: None

Options: GB attritions on all fronts

Voluntary Destruction of Units: none. This was a minor mistake. My guy on Malta has been hanging out there all game. I could use him in GB. I should have destroyed him in order to rebuild him in GB.

Movement
Russia continued to reposition its units. In GB, I put a 3-4 infantry and a 4-5 tank at J22. I now have a line of 3-4 and 4-5 tanks on all the hexes bordering the Germans. I can attrition on the 21-30 column. There’s a 50% chance I take at least one hex through attrition and if I happened to roll a 1 I’d get to take 2 hexes. That would be disastrous for Germany because I would advance on both sides of Manchester (putting the German units on Manchester out of supply).

If I rolled a 1 on the attrition the German could prevent me from taking a hex, but in order to deny me a hex he would have to lose the units on the hex. Alternatively, he could lose nothing, but with Manchester surrounded that would pretty much force him to take an offensive and I’d be doubled to 14. An EX roll would be costly. The odds of me rolling a 1 on the attrition and then him rolling the big exchange are low though.

The entire board looks like this after movement:

*Note: The stack on Calais is obscuring a single RC unit on Great Yarmouth.
*Note 2: The stack on Manchester is obscuring a 3-3 infantry on H25 (NE of Manchester).
*Note 3: I have two 3-4 infantry and a 2-5 tank on London.

Here’s GB after movement:

Attrition Combat
Here’s the big moment. Will I roll a 1, and thereby force him out of two hexes as well as put Manchester out of supply? Will I roll a 2 or 4, and thereby take back the hex I lost last turn and put us back to where we started? Or will I not take a hex. Drumroll……I roll a 6. He loses a RC counter in Germany. That did not work at all for the British.

Something That Needs to Change
There are a few rules that I disagree with. One of those rules is the ability to lose a unit anywhere on the front as a result of attrition combat. That just makes no sense whatsoever. Realistically, all the “fighting” is happening in GB. How could an infantry division around Berlin be destroyed from fighting in Great Britain? Makes no sense.

If I could change the rule, I would make it so that during attrition combat any counters the defender loses must be counters that were in contact with attackers’ counters being counted in the attrition on that front. To me, that makes sense. This turn is an example of why some of the things about Rise and Decline of the Third Reich 4.5 Rules are ridiculous. Off my soap box now.

Construction and SR
This was a tough decision of what to build. I could have dumped everything into buying a lot of air. But, that would not stop the flow of men into Rosyth. Also, even if I built all 20 air, he still outnumbers me and he would just counterair me every single turn. I decided to do the following:

Great Britain builds its last fleet, 2 RCs, and a 1-3 infantry. Great Britain also built 8 air. Now GB will have two 9 factor fleets and a 6 and that’s enough to at least have a chance of winning a naval battle, although not likely. Plus, if I lose a naval battle, losses will be multiplied by 2, which will inflict more damage on the Germans too. Since GB is going to be defeated anyway I’m hoping to have one chance of intercepting his fleets to do some damage on the way out.

Russia sent some foreign aid to Hungary.

Russia also SRd a few more units to Persia.

GB Srd the 6 factor fleet from the US box to Portsmouth. If there is a naval battle the Germans will have 36. But I will 24, which is only 3:2 odds. That’s not nearly as bad as I had hoped. If I got lucky I could stop the Germans and inflict *4 damage in an upcoming naval battle.

The map looks like this after SR:

*Note 1: There are 4 air, a 3-4 infantry, and a 4-5 tank NE of London.
*Note 2: There are 4 air, a 3-4 infantry, and a 4-5 tank NW of London.
*Note 3: The stack on Calais obscures the 1 RC unit on Great Yarmouth
*Note 4: The stack on Manchester obscures a 3-3 Germany infantry NE of Manchester.
*Note 5: The stack on Portsmouth obscures London. There are two 3-4 infantry and a 2-5 tank on London.

Final Thoughts
Whoever says the dice don’t matter is wrong. This turn proves that. The difference between rolling a 1 and what I actually rolled (a 6) is huge. If I had rolled a 1, the German plan to conquer GB would have been delayed an entire turn, possibly longer. This would be because to prevent me from advancing he would have had to lose all the units on both sides of Manchester. Alternatively, he could keep the units, but lose the hexes. If he lost the hexes, then he would be forced to attack next turn to try to free the isolated units on Manchester. If he rolled a big EX that would really hurt him. Either option the German chose would have delayed him conquering GB by 1 turn. But I did not roll a 1. Even though I had a 50% chance to take at least one hex I took none. Basically, I inflicted no damage and took no hexes at all.

Germany can now have two hexes attack one of mine and get the 2:1 odds that he needs to ensure victory and minimize the risk of any losses. GB should be defeated in Fall barring a disastrous 4, 6 combo roll.

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