bremen-or-not-bremen-question-turn-12-1940-winter

Initial Thoughts
The double turn really hurt Great Britain. Even though GB can attrition this turn, she can’t force the Germans off of Manchester because it is an objective hex. Whatever the British roll for attrition, the Germans will just take the losses from RC units around Berlin.

Next, I hope those of you who read these session reports will find this interesting. I’ve been saying all along that Great Britain probably lost the game when she decided to take the losses to her fleets on the attack on Bremen. However, there is still hope. While GB won’t win this game, it is possible for the Russians and Americans to overwhelm the Germans. We will have to see what happens.

Additionally, people make mistakes, and if Paul makes one or two big ones with the Axis, then the Allies could take back the lead very quickly.

Start
DoW: none

Options:
Russia: attritions on all fronts
Great Britain: attritions on all fronts
France: Pass on all fronts.

Voluntary Destruction of Units: none

Movement
Great Britain moves the 6 fleet from Great Yarmouth to the USA box. I do this because France will be defeated this turn. That means my only supply source for Great Britain is London itself, but if London falls, then the USA. On the German player’s next turn there’s a small chance that he risks going for London right away. If he takes London then I automatically lose GB unless I successfully have one of my fleets makes it to the USA box. Since the Germans outnumber the British fleets, that is extremely unlikely to be successful. Therefore, while all his fleets are inverted this turn, I move that 6 fleet to the USA now in preparation for next turn. I don’t want GB’s survival to depend on whether or not a fleet makes it to the USA box. I want to at least give me a chance to counter-attack London.

The Russians will later face the Germans. There are several ways to defend against the Germans. I chose to keep a front line of the cheap 1-3 infantry. I then am going to pull back my 2nd line. Behind the 2nd line of infantry go the Russian tanks spaced 3 hexes apart. If he breaks through the first line (and he can easily do that at any hex he wants) then Germany can only advance a few spaces at most with his tanks. If I setup my defense this way then I have to keep my 2nd line far enough back so that the airborne cannot open a hole in my 2nd line. I have tanks behind the 2nd line to prevent massive exploitations.

I also am using Lake Peipus (hexes F42, G42) in present day Latvia as a shield to plug in holes since I don’t have enough units to defend properly yet.

Here’s Russia after movement:

One of the dangers to the German player is that if he breaks through, his tanks can easily exploit, but the infantry get left behind. If the infantry are left behind then the tanks are out front, and in that situation, the Russians should launch an all out attack on as many of the German tanks they can kill. In other words, it is dangerous for Germany to get her tanks out front because then her expensive units are not protected themselves by the cheaper infantry. That was my thinking anyway as I pulled back for a better defensive position.

Here’s France/GB after movement:

*Note: there is a British RC unit on Great Yarmouth that is covered by the stack that is expanded on Calais.

In France there’s no chance I can take Paris back, so as expected France will be defeated. Paul and I go ahead and setup the Vichy forces with the fleets on Marseille, and 2 RC units. Germany will probably get Vichy later, but there will be no useful ground units.

In Great Britain, the tough decision is whether to leave some beaches empty. I believe the German will continue to bring in units through Rosyth. I therefore move a 3-4 infantry and 4-5 tank onto hex J23 (NW of London), and the identical setup on J24 (NE of London). This gets me 14 unit power so I can attrition on the 11-20 column. However, no matter how good (or bad) I roll, I won’t be able to attrition him out of Manchester because it is an objective hex. I also move a 1-3 infantry onto the mountain at I23. This prevents direct access to London. The German will have to attack the stacks of 7 if he wants to get at London, or try to take another beach (the empty beaches at J25 or L21) and attack from two different directions. My guess is why would he risk sea invasions turn after turn onto beaches at J25 and L21 when he already has the port at Rosyth. If he wants to get units into GB he can SR them in, or sea transport them in. Besides, taking the beach at J25 or L21 does not really get him any closer to London. London is surrounded with British units. Finally, I now have 10 power on London (though I did not expand the stack because it would cover other stacks. There are two 3-4 infantry and one 4-5 tank on London.

Here’s West Africa:

The British should have destroyed the guy on Malta so I could rebuild him in GB. I forgot to do that. I still need that boat on Gibraltar to delay the Italians getting into the west. I also need the infantry on Gibraltar so that he doesn’t just paratroop drop onto Gibraltar. Plus, in the event that he does take London, Gibraltar is its own supply source. This means that even if all my other units are out of supply, I’d have one unit (the guy on Gibraltar) who is in supply. That unit can attempt to sea transport to GB and try to retake London. Even though that would be at very low odds for success, I want to leave that option available as long as possible.

Here’s East Africa:

Here’s the whole map before missions are declared:

Missions
None, since GB attritioned.

Combat
The attrition roll was a 2 on the 11-20 column, which forced Germany to lose 2 RC units.

Construction and SR
Russia has nothing to build.

GB has nothing to build.

For Strategic Redeployment, GB sent the RC unit from L23 to J25 and sent an airbase to hex I22.

Russia sent four units into Persia, including a tank. The axis will eventually be at war with Russia and Russia doesn’t want the Italians to be taking huge swathes of territory every turn. If the Italians can link up with the Germans then it is extra hard for Russia to defend.

Here’s the whole map after SR:

Strategic Warfare Revealed
Both sides reveal their strategic warfare builds from Spring 1940. GB built 4 anti-subs and 1 SAC. Germany built 7 subs. This leaves us with 3 subs on the board and 1 SAC. GB must lose 9 BRPs and Germany must lose 2. Germany must also remove a 5-4 air wing from play for the next whole year.

1941 YSS
GB 120 (new base after SW losses) +5 (Morocco) – 12 (SW Builds) = 113
GB: 56/turn spending limit. 12/year foreign aid limit.

Russia: 90 + 31 (106 leftover in 1940) = 121 (new base) + 25 (east europe) = 146
Russia: 73/turn spending limit. 14/year foreign aid limit

Germany 148 (new base) + 87 (Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, France) = 235 – 22 = 213

Italy 75 + 30 (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Transjordan, Lebanon/Syria, Palestine) = 105

Allied total = 259. Axis total = 318. Axis will go first in 1941.

Final Thoughts
The British are pretty much in the same situation as I described in the previous session report. How quickly Great Britain is conquered depends on how risky the Germans are willing to roll and whether or not a 4, 6 combo gets rolled. Stay tuned to see what happens.

One note on the BRP situation. Russia grew permanently by 31. That’s a big deal. If Russia spends nothing in 1941 then she will grow by another 44 to her base. That’s a significant amount.

If I had known how this was turning out, it might have been good for Russia to take out Turkey. Russia could have attritioned Turkey to death and only had to spend 10 BRPs for the declaration of war, a net +20. But, it is nice to have Turkey as a buffer to help protect Russia’s southern flank.

Finally, neither side has revealed her variant counter draw. Hmmmm…that eliminates several possibilities for both sides.

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