bremen-or-not-bremen-question-turn-10-1940-fall-ax

Initial Thoughts
The Axis are sitting pretty. France went kamikaze on her turn and have clearly given up on holding Paris. The French will be defeated this turn. The Axis will also get a double turn, having finally regained the initiative. It couldn’t come at a better time for the Axis. The German airborne unit can airdrop anywhere, and the British cannot take an offensive option on their Winter turn, which means if the Germans can find a way ashore into GB, then GB will almost certainly eventually fall to the Germans as well.

Start
Paul started the Axis turn with “Wow, this last turn was totally unexpected.” I’m curious what he thought was going to happen instead of the French going kamikaze. He’s better at this game than I am and so he might have seen an opening that I missed. Or maybe he just didn’t expect me to literally kill off almost all of my French units?

Germany declares an offensive in the West for 15 BRPs, attritions in the east, and passes in the med. Germany is down to 63 BRPs. Italy attritions in the Med and passes everywhere else.

Movement
The Italian 6th fleet is designated for supply.

The Italians conquer Algeria with their 2-5 tank now that Algeria is wide open. They also conquer Tunisia with their 1-3 infantry, displacing the French boats there to Ajaccio on the island of Corsica. Not to be stopped, the Italians finish conquest of Egypt, Palestine, Transjordan, and take 2 of the 3 cities in Lebanon-Syria. This was all inevitable from the moment the Allies took the exchange on Bremen and lost their navy. The Suez canal repairs begin and 2 turns from now the Axis will be able to use the canal for SR purposes.

Meanwhile, in Italy, the Italians retake the city of Genoa which they lost a long time ago. The British had SR’d an airbase there on purpose because now that the Italians liberated Genoa the airbase gets sent back to GB which is where I want it anyway. I kinda used the Italians to help me move my unit to GB (which I couldn’t do on my own).

The German infantry and a few tanks move to surround Paris for the inevitable attack. Meanwhile several divisions of panzers streak eastward towards Berlin, where, I assume, they will be headed further east next turn to prepare for later battles with the Russians.

Here’s the whole map before missions are declared:

Here’s France/GB:

Here’s Italy:

Here’s West Africa:

Here’s East Africa:

Missions
The Axis fly 4 Ground Support on Paris and the two German fleets on Wilhelmshaven carry the 3-3 and 2-3 to invade Scapa Flow.

So I had a decent chance of intercepting the German fleets with both of my fleets. And I really needed at least one of them to intercept. If both intercepted I might win the naval battle and then he might not make it ashore in GB at all. Or, if he does make it ashore his position would be a lot less reinforced and I might be able to stop him. If only one intercepted I would almost certainly lose, but I’d be destroying his future fleet and probably inflicting damage on the German fleet at the same time.

The French fleet on Cherbourg will intercept on anything except a roll of a 6. Guess what I rolled? Yep: a 6. The French fleet on Brest will intercept on anything except a 5 or a 6. Guess what I rolled? Yep: a 5. No interceptions. 🙁 So, the Germans take Scapa Flow without any losses. I guess the French were demoralized by the losses last turn and didn’t really have their hearts into fighting anymore!

Combat
Germany had 30 factors on Paris vs. the French 6. So 5:1 odds. He rolled a 5, killing my last tank and taking Paris.

During exploitation the Germans fly 7 GS on my RC unit on hex J24 (NE of London). I only have 2 air available to fly DAS, and those can be intercepted, so I choose to fly no DAS.

His paratrooper drops on Manchester in GB and attacks the RC with the air support. 10:2 odds. Die roll is a 4 and my RC dies without losses to the Germans.

Construction and SR
Italy sends 17 BRPs to Germany. Italy has 1 remaining.

Germany builds a 9 fleet on Wilhelmshaven for 27 BRPs.

Germany now has 53 BRPs and Italy 1.

Italy’s SR consists of sending airbases up against the Russian line for future attacks and sending ground units to NE Transjordan in the middle east.

Germany’s SR consists of sending units east to Poland for future attacks.

The turn ends with the map looking like this:

*Note: There is a British RC unit on Great Yarmouth that is partially covered by the stack on Calais.

Thoughts
I did successfully deter the Germans from attempting to attack GB in the south. If the Germans had gotten ashore in the southern England then GB would be dead quickly. However, the Axis get to go again, and as I expected would happen (unless my boats happened to win the sea battle–which didn’t happen), he has gotten a foothold in the north. GB will almost certainly eventually be conquered, but it will take at least several turns. Now that the Germans have a foothold in GB they should play conservatively to make sure they hold onto their foothold. They can’t afford to risk their strategically superior position with risky attacks (nothing on the 1:1 column).

The Axis are going again!

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